The Preemptive Strike Doctrine: A Necessary Evil

The Preemptive Strike Doctrine

Clear and Present Danger

If an individual, or the United States as a sovereign nation is aware of a building danger to security or safety, is the optimal plan to wait until it is a clear and present danger before dealing with it? Common sense would seem to dictate that the line separating danger and imminent danger is extremely fine, and that waiting is in no way consistent with the premise of either personal or national security.

As an individual you would work the problem through the system to try and contain it. As a nation facing entities and regimes that seek to inflict as much damage and destruction as possible on innocent men, women and children, the solution is more complex. And yes, this solution may in fact require the use of military force to take that threat out.

The Preemptive Strike Doctrine was put in place by the Bush administration in 2002 with the expressed purpose of giving the United States the right to protect, not only our citizens, but our allies around the world from the ever increasing threats that exist. It stated that the United States had the right to deal with a building threat to security in addition to a threat that presented a "clear and present danger" Unfortunately for all involved, because it was implemented by President Bush, it is a pariah that President Obama wants to eradicate.

Obviously, Iran is the textbook case for the fine line that we have to walk. There is a quickly building danger posed to world security by the Iranian nuclear program. Our "allies" in the fight to end or contain this threat, Russia and China, are not true allies. In fact, China and Russia have their own agendas, which will prevent them from taking any real action against this regime. China has a need for the Iranian oil to fuel its 6% plus economic growth. Russia has economic ties to Iran and is in fact helping them in building its’ nuclear infrastructure and missile defense system. This very missile defense system will make dealing with the nukes problem, when it does become a clear and present danger, that much more difficult to deal with. Is waiting for this point in the best interest of United States national security?

The Obama Doctrine

This apparent method of the Obama administration for dealing with threats to the United States and our friends around the world has become clear. Ominously clear. It is the idea of diplomacy first and second, with the implementation of sanctions and deal making together with our supposed allies to gain the help needed to deal with the problem third. The fallacy of this plan?

You cannot enter into substantive and valid negotiations with when the other party to those negotiations is a rogue regime with the stated goal of destroying our allies and the U.S. You cannot implement economic sanctions against a government who does not have the vested interests of its' own population at heart. Additionally, when your partners in imposing the sanctions will most likely not abide by them, this method of containing the threat will fail. China and Russia have clearly stated that they do not favor sanctions at this time.

At the same time, through the Obama Doctrine premise of appeasement, the United States has portrayed itself as the polar opposite of Bush. Weak and willing to give up most anything to achieve our goals in ways that will make them unachievable. We gave up missile defense in Poland and Czechoslovakia to appease the Russians with the understanding that they would back sanctions, and they did not.

Our allies in this fight against global threats, as well as Iran and North Korea, do not respect weakness, but they will take full advantage of it. For the Russians under acting leader Putin, they will get whatever they can from the United States, and in return most likely never come through on their side of the bargain. For Iran, they will play the game and dance the dance, stringing us along while continuing on the way to a nuclear capability.

What the Obama Doctrine does not seem to account for is that rhetoric, flowery speech and empty threats do not scare anyone. Anyone, except for those around the world who see it for what it is: “Clear and present danger" to the United States itself. In the end, those nations who live under a daily threat to security will be forced to take matters into their own hands, act unilaterally, and pay a price to ensure national security.

What the Obama Doctrine needs to account for is that in the world today, the emphasis has to be on a pragmatic approach to events, and not an approach designed to simply be "not George Bush." While the far left may endorse that, the rest of us will pay the price.

Financial Sources

Financial Sources (FinancialSources.info) is a Subject Tracer™ Information Blog developed and created by the Virtual Private Library™. It is designed to bring together the latest resources and sources on an ongoing basis from the Internet for financial resources which are listed below. We always welcome suggestions of additional sites and resources to be added to this comprehensive listing and please submit by clicking here. This site has been developed and maintained by Marcus P. Zillman, M.S., A.M.H.A.; Internet expert, author, keynote speaker, and consultant. His latest white papers include Searching the Internet, Academic and Scholar Search Engines and Sources, and Knowledge Discovery Resources 2009. All of his Subject Tracer™ Information Blogs and his white papers are available from WhitePapers.us.

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Financial Sources Subject Tracer™ White Paper link compilation was the feature article in the August 23, 2008 edition of LLRX and is available in HTML by clicking here.


This Financial Sources Subject Tracer™ Information Blog is divided into the following sections:

CORPORATION CONFERENCE CALLS SOURCES
FINANCIAL SOURCES
FINANCIAL SOURCES SEARCH ENGINES
VENTURE CAPITAL SOURCES
Current Subject Tracer™ Information Blogs



CORPORATION CONFERENCE CALLS SOURCES

BestCalls - The Internet's Conference Call Directory
http://www.bestcalls.com/

Business Wire
http://home.businesswire.com/

CCBN/Thomson
http://www.ccbn.com/

Full Disclosure
http://www.fulldisclosure.com/

Institutional Investor Corporate Conference Calls
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/default.asp?Page=8

PR Newswire
http://www.prnewswire.com/

Q1234.com
http://www.q1234.com/en/index.html

Raging Bull
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/

Thomson Street Events
http://www.StreetEvents.com/

Vcall
http://www.vcall.com/

Wall Street Horizon - Earnings Calendar
http://www.wallstreethorizon.com/

Yahoo! Current Day Conference Calls
http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/



FINANCIAL SOURCES

10k Wizard: SEC Filings
http://www.10kwizard.com/

ABA - Business Law - Committee on Cyberspace Law
http://www.abanet.org/dch/committee.cfm?com=CL320000

A Guide to the Recent Financial Crisis in the U.S.
http://libguides.colostate.edu/financialcrisis

American Association of Individual Investors
http://www.aaii.com/

American Banker Online
http://www.americanbanker.com/

American Express Financial Advisors
http://snipurl.com/601b

American Stock Exchange
http://www.amex.com/

Analysis of Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Accounts
http://www.capital-flow-analysis.com/

Annual Reports
http://www.AnnualReports.com/

AOL - Finance
http://finance.aol.com/

Bank of Ireland Global Markets
http://www.bankofireland.ie/html/gws/capital_markets/treasury/index.html

Bank Rate Monitor
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/default.asp

Barron's Online
http://www.barrons.com/

BestCalls - The Internet's Conference Call Directory
http://www.bestcalls.com/

BigCharts - Stock Charts- Stock Screeners- Research Tools
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/

BizStats - Comprehensive Business Statistics, Financial Ratios & Benchmarks
http://www.BizStats.com/

Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/

BudgetPulse - Simple Online Money Tracking and Budget
http://www.budgetpulse.com/

BusinessFinance - America's Business Funding Directory
http://www.BusinessFinance.com/

Business Intelligence Resources
http://www.BIResources.info/

Campbell R. Harvey's Hypertextual Finance Glossary
http://snipurl.com/601p

Capital Numeric Forecaster
http://www.capitalnumeric.com/

Chart of the Day - Insightful Stock Market and Financial Related Charts
http://www.chartoftheday.com/

Chicago Mercantile Exchange - CME
http://www.cme.com/

C-Loans Commercial Mortgage Lender Databank
http://www.c-loans.com/

ClosingPrices.mobi - Daily Closing Prices Direct To Your Mobile Device and Cell Phone
http://www.ClosingPrices.mobi

CNN/Money
http://money.cnn.com/

Commercial Finance Information
http://www.cfa-commercial.com/

Commercial Mortgage Leads
http://www.commercialleads.net/

Commercial Real Estate Loans & Structured Finance Blog
http://commercialloans.blogs.com/

Comtex SmarTrend Alert
http://www.mysmartrend.com/

Confused.com - UK Financial Comparison Shopping Sites
http://www.confused.com/

Corporate Financials Online
http://www.cfonews.com/

Credit Card Menu
http://www.creditcardmenu.com/

CreditCards.com - Compare Credit Card Offers
http://www.creditcards.com/

CreditCardXPO - Find Credit Card Applications Online
http://www.creditcardxpo.com/

Creditworthy Business Credit
http://www.creditworthy.com/

Current Awareness Monitors, Alerts and Information Traps for 2008
http://www.eCurrentAwareness.com/

Daily Stocks
http://www.DailyStocks.com/

DirectoryAccounting.com - Accounting Web Directory
http://www.DirectoryAccounting.com/

Dow Jones
http://www.dowjones.com/

DTN.IQ - Streaming Real-time Stocks, Futures and Option Quotes, and Breaking News
http://www.dtniq.com/

eCommerce Resources Subject Tracer™ Information Blog
http://www.eCommerceResources.info/

eco5.com
http://www.eco5.com/

Econometrics Links
http://www.feweb.vu.nl/econometriclinks/

Economic Recovery
http://www.EconomicRecovery.gov/

EDGAR Index - SEC Filing Directory and RSS Notification Service
http://www.edgarindex.com/

EDGAR Online
http://www.edgar-online.com/

eFinance
http://www.efinance.com/

Emergency Economic Stabilization Act and Troubled Asset Relief - TARP
http://www.treas.gov/initiatives/eesa/

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade
http://www.mesharpe.com/mall/results1.asp?ACR=REE

Equis International - MetaStock Software, Technical Analysis, Charting and Financial Tools
http://www.equis.com/

euromoney
http://www.euromoney.com/

Euronext
http://www.euronext.com/

European Economy News
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/een/index_en.htm

Federal Reserve Districts
http://www.federalreserve.gov/otherfrb.htm

FedSpending.org
http://www.FedSpending.org/

FinAid! - The Smart Student Guide to Financial Aid
http://www.finaid.org/

Finance News for IT Managers
http://www.internetnews.com/fina-news/

Finance Resources on the Web
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~igiddy/

Finance Site List
http://www.cob.ohio-state.edu/fin/journal/jofsites.htm

Financial Calculators
http://www.mortgageloan.com/calculator/

Financial Data Finder
http://fisher.osu.edu/fin/osudata.htm

Financial Directory
http://www.financialdirectory.ws/

Financial Economics Network
http://www.ssrn.com/FEN/index.html

Financial Engines
http://www.FinancialEngines.com/

Financial Management - Scholarly Research in Finance
http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0046-3892&site=1

Financial News Online
http://www.efinancialnews.com/

Financial Step
http://www.financialstep.com/

Financial Technology Network
http://www.financetech.com/

FIND - UK Financial Websites
http://www.find.co.uk/

FINVIZ.com - Stock Market Screener, Charts, Quotes, and Financial Visualizations
http://finviz.com/

FINWeb
http://www.finweb.com/

FreeEDGAR: Free Real-Time SEC EDGAR Filings
http://www.freeedgar.com/Search/BeginSearch.asp

FreeRealTime Start Page
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/

fResource - Global Fundraising Resources
http://www.fresource.info/

FSTC: Financial Services Technology Consortium
http://www.fstc.org/

FT.COM: Global Financial Crisis In Depth and Continuous Coverage
http://www.ft.com/indepth/global-financial-crisis

FuturesBoard
http://www.futuresboard.com/

FX-Agents
http://e-aec.stanford.edu/projects/fxagents.htm

Giddy.org - Giddy's Web Resources in Finance
http://www.Giddy.org/

Global Financial Data
http://www.globalfindata.com/

Global Stock Trends
http://www.globalstocktrends.com/

Google™ Directory - Business - Financial Services
http://directory.google.com/Top/Business/Financial_Services/

Google Finance
http://finance.google.com/

Grant Resources
http://www.GrantResources.info/

Grant Street Group Financial Auctions
https://www.grantstreet.com/

Grisbi - Personnal Accounting Application
http://www.grisbi.org/

Grism - Open Source Stock Market Observation Tool
http://www.grism.org/

GuruFocus - Stock Picks and Market Insights of Warren Buffett and Other Guru Investors
http://www.gurufocus.com/

Hedge Fund Reports
http://snipurl.com/254ty

Hoover's Online - The Business Information Authority
http://www.hoovers.com/

How the Financial World Goes Round - A Primer on Financial Information Resources By Dave Dixie
http://www.freepint.com/issues/180506.htm#feature

IFC - International Finance Corporation
http://www.ifc.org/

IMF Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board
http://dsbb.imf.org/Applications/web/dsbbhome/

IMF: Financial Market Update
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fmu/eng/index.asp

INO - The Web Center for Futures and Options
http://quotes.ino.com/

Inside Wall Street
http://www.insidewallstreet.com/

Insure
http://www.insure.com/

International Research Journal of Finance and Economics
http://www.eurojournals.com/finance.htm

International Review of Finance
http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1369-412X

International Treasurer
http://www.intltreasurer.com/

Investing in Bonds
http://www.InvestingInBonds.com/

Investment FAQ
http://invest-faq.com/

Investment Wizard
http://www.investmentwizard.com/

Investools
http://www.investools.com/

Investopedia
http://www.investopedia.com/

Investor's Clearinghouse from the Alliance for Investor Education
http://www.investoreducation.org/

InvestorGuide.com - The Leading Online Guide to Investing
http://www.investorguide.com/

Investor Links - Financial Directory
http://www.investorlinks.com/

Investor's Business Daily
http://www.investors.com/

InvestorWords.com - Investing Glossary
http://www.investorwords.com/

InvestorVillage - Where Serious Investors Connect
http://www.investorvillage.com/index.asp

INXS Technologies - Complex Yet Simple Financial Applications
http://www.inxsasia.com/

IRIN - Annual Report Resource Center
http://www.irin.com/

Japan Financials
http://japanfinancials.com/

JSE Securities Exchange - South Africa
http://www.jse.co.za/

Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance
http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-JCAF.html

Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce
http://www.arraydev.com/commerce/JIBC/

JP Morgan Markets
http://www.jpmorgan.com

Kiplinger - Trusted Financial Advice
http://www.kiplinger.com/

Lendicom - Commercial Mortgage Online Tools and Submission/Pipeline Management
http://www.lendicom.com/

Lending Tree
http://www.LendingTree.com/

LinkSViewer - Visual Network Analysis Research Engine
http://linksviewer.com/home/

London Stock Exchange
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/

Map of the Market
http://www.smartmoney.com/marketmap/

Market Center
http://www.MarketCenter.com/

Market Intelligence Resources 2008
http://www.MarketIntelligenceResources.com/

Market News International
http://www.MarketNews.com/

Marketocracy - Finding the Best Investors in the World
http://www.marketocracy.com/

Market Vector
http://www.marketvector.com/

MasterCard®
http://www.MasterCard.com/

MFFAIS - Mutual Funds Facts About Individual Stocks
http://www.mffais.com/

Microfinance Business Research Guide from Lippincott Library
http://gethelp.library.upenn.edu/guides/business/microfinance.html/

Microfinance Gateway
http://www.microfinancegateway.org/

Money.co.uk - Compare Loans, Credit Cards, Mortgages, Car and Home Insurances
http://www.money.co.uk/

MoneyExtra
http://www.moneyworld.co.uk/

MoneyScience Financial Intelligence Network
http://www.moneyscience.com/

MoneyScience Financial Services Directory
http://www.moneyscience.com/Financial_Services_Directory/

Mortgage Calculator
http://www.mortgagecalculator.net/

Mozenda Web Agent Builder - Web Data Extraction
http://www.mozenda.com/

MSN Money
http://moneycentral.msn.com/home.asp

Mvelopes Personal - Online Home Budgeting System
http://www.mvelopes.com/

MyMoney.gov
http://www.mymoney.gov/

NASD - Regulation
http://www.nasdr.com/

NASDAQ® Stock Market
http://www.nasdaq.com/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
http://www.nber.org/

National Information Center of the Federal Reserve System
http://www.ffiec.gov/nicpubweb/nicweb/nichome.aspx

New Economy Analytics, Resources and Alerts
http://www.NewEconomyAnalytics.com/

New York Stock Exchange - NYSE
http://www.nyse.com/

Nexodyne Stock Exchange (NSXE) - Stock Market Simulator
http://exchange.nexodyne.com/

Nightly Business Report - NBR.com
http://www.pbs.org/nbr

OANDA, The Currency Site: Foreign Exchange Services and Trading
http://www.oanda.com/

Office of Financial Education of the Department of the Treasury
http://snipurl.com/26oi0

Open Directory - Business - Financial Services
http://www.dmoz.org/Business/Financial_Services/

PayPal
http://www.payPal.com/

Peer to Peer Lending with Prosper Blog
http://p2plendingwithprosper.blogspot.com/

Perfect Information
http://www.perfectinfo.com/

Prediction Markets
http://www.PredictionMarkets.com/

Prophet.Net
http://www.prophet.net/

Quote
http://www.Quote.com/

RateNet - Your Financial Connection
http://www.rate.net/

RealWebFunds Finds Financing - Commercial Mortgages
http://www.realwebfunds.com/

Reuters - Stocks
http://www.investor.reuters.com/

Ripple Monetary System
http://ripple.sourceforge.net/

Risk Models - APT
http://www.apt.com/

Savings Bond Wizard®
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/tools/tools_savingsbondwizard.htm

SchaeffersResearch.com: Online Resources for Stock and Options Traders
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/

SEC Filings & Forms (EDGAR)
http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml

SEDAR
http://www.sedar.com/

Seeking Alpha - Stock Market News, Opinion and Analysis
http://seekingalpha.com/

Show Me The TARP Money Map
http://www.propublica.org/special/bailout-map

Silicon Investor
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/

Smart Money
http://www.smartmoney.com/

Smart Stocks
http://www.SmartStocks.com/

Stock and Bond Exchanges (Worldwide Listing)
http://dmoz.org/Business/Investing/Stocks_and_Bonds/Exchanges/

Stock Charts
http://www.StockCharts.com/

Stock Market Trading and Investing Software
http://stock-investing-software.com/

StockPickr - Free Stock Recommendation Site
http://www.stockpickr.com/

Stock Quote Source
http://stockquotesource.com/

StockScouter - Analyze Stock Potential
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/StockRating/srsmain.asp

StudyFinance - Introductory to Finance
http://www.studyfinance.com/

Super Star Investor
http://www.superstarinvestor.com/

The Big Money from Slate - Synthesis of Financial News and Tools
http://www.thebigmoney.com/

The Big Picture - Macro Perspective On the Capital Markets and More ..
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

The Economy - Global Economic Crisis Special Coverage and World Market Analysis
http://www.thrall.org/special/economy.html#Global_Economic_Crisis

The Financial Forecast Center™
http://www.forecasts.org/index.htm

The Investment FAQ
http://invest-faq.com/

The Survivor's Manual for The New Economy
http://www.NewEconomyManual.com/

Trading Markets
http://www.TradingMarkets.com/

U.S. Banking Law
http://www.law.cornell.edu/topics/banking.html

U.S. Department of Treasury
http://www.treas.gov/

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
http://www.sec.gov/

Value Engines - Stock Valuation and Forecasting
http://www.Valueengines.com/

VentureOne: Venture Capital and Private Equity Research and Information
http://www.ventureone.com/

Virtual Economy Research Network (VERN)
http://virtual-economy.org/

Virtual Finance Library - Ohio State University
http://fisher.osu.edu/fin/overview.htm

Visa
http://www.visa.com/

VistaWEB - Online Investment Banking
http://www.vistaweb.com/

Wall Street Horizon - Earnings Calendar
http://www.wallstreethorizon.com/

WikiInvest - Research About Companies and Investment Concepts
http://www.wikinvest.com/

World Bank Developer Network
http://developer.worldbank.org/

World Economic Outlook (WEO)
http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28

World'Vest Base (WVB)
http://www.wvb.com/

XBRL - eXtensible Business Reporting Language
http://xbrl.org/

Xinhua Finance - Chinese Investment Tools
http://www.xfnn.com/en/main/index.html

Yahoo! Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/

ZachsAdvisor
http://www.zacksadvisor.com/

Zach's Investment Research
http://www.zacks.com/

Zephyr
http://www.zephyr.bvdep.com/cgi/template.dll?product=24&currency=



FINANCIAL SOURCES SEARCH ENGINES

Financial Data Finder
http://fisher.osu.edu/fin/osudata.htm

FinancialFind
http://www.FinancialFind.com/

Financial Engines
http://www.financialengines.com/

FreeEDGAR - Free Real Time SEC EDGAR Filings
http://www.freeedgar.com/Search/BeginSearch.asp

eFinancialBot - Your Financial Search Engine
http://www.eFinancialBot.com/

Option Crawler
http://www.optioncrawler.com/

VhaYu Technologies
http://www.vhayu.com/



VENTURE CAPITAL SOURCES

Accel Partners
http://www.accel.com/

ARCH Venture Partners
http://www.archventure.com/

Benchmark Capital
http://www.benchmark.com/

Capital Connection: Entrepreneur's Resource for Finance
http://www.capital-connection.com/

Florida Venture Forum
http://www.flvencap.org/

Hummer Winblad Venture Partners
http://www.humwin.com/

Growthink Research - Venture Capital Funding Research Reports
http://www.growthinkresearch.com/

Lightspeed Venture Partners
http://www.wpgvp.com/

Mayfield
http://www.mayfield.com/home.html

MIT Club of Northen California
http://www.mitcnc.org/

MIT/Stanford Venture lab (VLAB)
http://www.vlab.org/

MoneyTree Report - Venture Capital Investment Activity
https://www.pwcmoneytree.com/MTPublic/ns/index.jsp

Norwest Venture Partners (NVP)
http://www.norwestvc.com/

Tech Capital Partners
http://www.techcapital.com/

VC Fodder
http://www.vcfodder.com/

Venture Capital Database (VCDB)
http://www.punctuative.com/vcdb/

VentureOne
http://www.ventureone.com/

Venture Planning Associates
http://www.ventureplan.com/

VentureSource
http://www.venturesource.com/

VentureWire
http://venturecapital.dowjones.com/products/prod_vw_pro.html

vFinance®
http://www.vfinance.com/



Current Subject Tracer™ Information Blogs:

Accessibility Resources
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Agriculture Resources
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Artificial Intelligence Resources
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Auction Resources
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Biological Informatics
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Biotechnology Resources
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Bot Research
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Business Intelligence Resources
http://www.biresources.info/

ChatterBots
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Data Mining Resources
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Deep Web Research
http://www.deepwebresearch.info/

Directory Resources
http://www.DirectoryResources.info/

eCommerce Resources
http://www.eCommerceResources.info/

Elder Resources
http://www.ElderResources.info/

Employment Resources
http://www.EmploymentResources.info/

Entrepreneurial Resources
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Financial Sources
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Finding People
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Games Resources
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Genealogy Resources
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Grant Resources
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Green Files
http://www.GreenFiles.info/

Grid, Distributed and Cloud Computing Resources
http:/www.GridResources.info/

Healthcare Resources
http://www.healthcareresources.info/

Information Futures Markets
http://www.InformationFuturesMarkets.com/

Information Quality Resources
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International Trade Resources
http://www.InternationalTradeResources.info/

Internet Alerts
http://www.InternetAlerts.info/

Internet Demographics
http://www.internetdemographics.info/

Internet Experts
http://www.internetexperts.info/

Internet Hoaxes
http://www.internethoaxes.info/

Journalism Resources
http://www.JournalismResources.info/

Knowledge Discovery
http://www.knowledgediscovery.info/

Military Resources
http://www.MilitaryResources.info/

New Economy Analytics, Resources and Alerts
http://www.NewEconomyAnalytics.com/

Outsourcing/Offshoring Information and Resources
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Privacy Resources
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Reference Resources
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RestStress™
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Script Resources
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ShoppingBots
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Social Informatics
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Statistics Resources
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Student Research
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Tutorial Resources
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World Wide Web Reference
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June housing construction rises more than expected

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Construction of new U.S. homes rose in June to the highest level in seven months as builders rushed to pour foundations for homes that must be completed by the end of November for first-time buyers to take advantage of a special tax break.

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RYL	17.34	-0.04
TOL	17.33	+0.18

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The Commerce Department said Friday that construction of new homes and apartments jumped 3.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 582,000 units, from an upwardly revised rate of 562,000 in May.

It was better than the 530,000-unit pace economists expected, and was the second straight monthly increase after April's record low of 479,000 units.

"This was the most positive housing report in ages," wrote Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight.

Homebuyers are being attracted by lower prices, and first-time buyers can also take advantage of a tax credit worth 10 percent of the purchase price, with a cap of $8,000, which was included in the federal stimulus package.

"The largest spark...has been the looming deadline," said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. His trade group said Thursday that the confidence level of builders has risen to the highest level in nearly a year.

Shares of major homebuilders rose on the news with Beazer Homes and Hovnanian Enterprises up about 5 percent in midday trading. The broader stock indexes, meanwhile, were little-changed Friday after Bank of America and Citigroup became the latest banks to report big second-quarter profits but also weakness in their loan portfolios.

Over the past three years, the collapse in the housing market led to soaring loan losses, a severe banking system crisis and the longest recession since World War II. Even with the better-than-expected figures, the pace was still 46 percent below last year, and analysts don't expect a quick rebound. That's because companies are still shedding jobs and home prices are falling.

"There's still a long way to go before one wants to declare anything that begins to look like a strong recovery or success," said Rebecca Blank, undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs.

The Federal Reserve this week projected that the national unemployment rate, currently at a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, will pass 10 percent by the end of the year. Unemployment has already passed that mark in 15 states and the District of Columbia last month, according to federal data released Friday.

The rate in Michigan surpassed 15 percent, the first time any state has hit that level since 1984.

Most Fed policymakers said it could take five or six years for the economy and the labor market to get back on a path of long-term health. To get there, consumers must return to a regular spending groove and housing prices need to start rising again.

The jump in housing starts last month reflected a more than 14 percent rise in construction of single-family homes, the largest monthly increase since December 2004. Construction of multifamily units -- a particularly volatile part of the market -- fell nearly 26 percent from a month earlier.

Meanwhile, applications for building permits, seen as a good indicator of future activity, rose almost 9 percent in June.

AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa contributed to this report.

Making a Profit on Real Estate Investments

Real estate investing is among the most interesting and lucrative business practices out there. Investing in real estate is exciting, and if you make the right choices you are almost guaranteed to make a profit. After all, the price of houses keeps going up and up, as does commercial real estate. Don’t get me wrong real estate investments are not a sure thing. There is no such thing as a sure investment, and anyone who tells you different is not giving you the whole story. Nonetheless, it is one of the surest things out there.

I first got involved in real estate investing accidentally. I was renting a warehouse with some friends when the landlord suddenly decided he wanted to sell it. It wasn’t making enough from rent, and he had some bad debts that he wanted to settle. He gave us the option of buying it from him, and we decided that that was just the thing to do.

It was hard to get together money for a down payment, but once we did, we never regretted it. Although the area was depressed at the time, there was an urban renewal program that was bringing more money into the city. Soon, our warehouse artists space was worth a fortune.

I moved out after some time and decided to just sell my share and invest more more somewhere else. I pursued more of real estate investing. I put my money in a huge commercial lot which costs me a lot but sooner though, I was just collecting money on a monthly basis. Everything paid off well again.

Real estate investing does not mean that you have to purchase immense properties. You can just start with small shares in a few properties and earn in small amounts on a regular basis. Expand your portfolio through purchasing small shares in various areas.

The Twenty Best Financial Blogs

Technorati.com, the big blog tracking service, now covers 53 million blogs. Although the site does not break out numbers for business and financial blogs, the number must be in the hundreds of thousands. Putting the term “financial blog” into Google Blog Search brings back 332,135 results.

24/7 Wall St. has spent the last four weeks looking at financial blogs. Top blog lists from BusinessWeek, Barron’s, Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, and the Financial Times were analyzed. We also looked at blog aggregators like seekingalpha.com and pfblog.org. We looked over “favorite sites” at some of the older and more well-known financial blogs like gannononinvesting.com. We looked at the blogs picked up most frequently at mainline sites like the Daily Blog Watch at TheStreet.com.

We reviewed hundreds of sites, and narrowed the list down to 60 financial blogs based primarily on strength of content. We picked our 20 finalists from those By looking at these sites it is obvious that financial blogs can go toe-to-toe with mainstream online business media. The best blogs are that good.

Original content counted for a great deal. We had a bias against sites that were nothing other than “feeds” of financial blogs. We also discounted sites where the author or authors posted less than once a month. It was too difficult to check back every few days to look for new posts. We also did not list any site that did not have the name of the real author or authors and a full disclosure policy about investments that the writers might hold.

We have also listed the Alexa rankings for each site’s traffic so readers can see how each site ranks among all websites measured. If a site has an average traffic rank of 50,000, it is the 50,000th most visited site in the world. For example, MarketWatch.com is site number 466.

The sites are not in any particular order. Where they fall in this article bears no relationship to their rank compared to one another. It’s the Top 20, not the Top 1 through 20.

Footnoted.org (http://www.footnoted.org/). This site, run by business journalist Michelle Leder, does a lot of digging into public filings. Ms. Leder’s work shows a passion for detail, and an excellent working knowledge of SEC filings. She posts about once a day. Alexa Three Month Ranking:151,421.

Frank Barnako’s Media Blog (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/barnako) The author primarily covers media and the internet. Barnako picks up good blogs on these subjects from a number of other sites, and his blog usually puts up three or four new posts a day.
Alexa Three Month Ranking for Marketwatch.com which hosts Barnako: 466.

GannonOnInvesting (http://www.gannononinvesting.com/) Geoff Gannon writes as well as any senior editor at Forbes or Forture. We just wish he wrote more often. His recent series on large banks is a classic and shows that financial blogs can match analysis and writing style with anything mainstream media has to offer. Alexa Three Month Ranking: 350,569

The microcap speculator (http://www.microcapspeculator.blogspot.com/) This is the best sites for analysis of stock with very small market capitalizations. Many of the stocks written about here trade on the Bulletin Board and Pink Sheets. The site covers individual companies, insider buying at microcaps and the short interest in small companies, which is probably where most naked shorting goes on. Alexa Three Month Ranking: 1,213,359.

Stock Market Beat (http://www.stockmarketbeat.com/) William Trent, the author of StockMarketBeat is a certified financial analyst. It shows. Trent is especially good at covering the semiconductor market, but he takes on everything from retail companies to personnel firms. The research is extraordinary and often links to very interesting studies. The site usually has two new posts a day. We are begging Trent to put his site onto something like blogger. Navigating StockMarketBeat is almost as interesting as the articles, which is too bad. Alexa Three Month Ranking: 836,228 (24/7 Wall St runs some of StockMarketBeat’s articles.)

Berkshire Ruminations (http://berkshireruminations.blogspot.com/) Andy Kern, who writes this blog, is a devotee of Warren Buffett. But, a lot of the posts he writes have nothing to do with Buffett. The coverage of economic trends and specific companies shows a keen eye for the market. Kern does not post often, and due to that almost didn’t make this list, but what is posted is good enough to make up for low volume. Alexa Three Month Ranking: Not Ranked

The Kirk Report (http://www.thekirkreport.com/). This site is a combination of solid writing on companies and the markets by Charles Kirk and includes a large number of references to other financial blogs and websites that cover a spectrum of stock market and economic subjects. A trip to the site is like going to a current events library on the markets. Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 51,041.

TraderFeed (http://www.traderfeed.blogspot.com/) Brett Steenbarger’s site was chosen because it is not only clearly very good, but takes a completely different perspective on the market than we do. The site primarily posts about the market based on trends that may go back years and includes psychological insights regarding the skills and personalities of traders. The author posts very regularly. Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 170,591.

SeekingAlpha (http://www.seekingalpha.com/) This large website runs 40 or 50 articles a day by both in-house staff and contributors. Subjects range from individual companies in both the US and overseas markets to exchange traded funds and includes personal financial advice. SeekingAlpha runs transcripts of large company conference calls and summaries of Jim Cramer’s comments and the Wall Street Journal. Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 8,668.

Ticker Sense (http://www.tickersense.typepad.com/). Ticker Sense is put out by Birinyi Associates, a firm that provides research to institutional investors. It shows. The authors put up one or two posts a day, usually with charts. Recent post have included global exchange traded funds that are overbought or oversold, an historical look at monthly employment trends, and a look at Pepsi’s trading range. The articles are well-written and the analysis is outstanding. Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 251,409.

ModernGraham.com (http://www.moderngraham.com/) The people who started this blog are followers of the investment philosophies of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. The authors post technical screens of stocks based on financial characteristics like defensive shares that trade at high return on investment capital. Companies are also analyzed based on Buffet’s Business and Management Review. All of it is thought provoking even if you don’t agree with Graham or Buffett. Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking:3,103,703.

TheStockMasters (http://www.thestockmasters.com/) This site is written by a group of investors including financial advisors and day traders. Posts are usually done a few times a week and cover stocks and options. Recent stories on Sprint and Ford were particularly well-done. Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 5,180,713.

BloggingStocks (http://www.bloggingstocks.com/) This site is part of the weblogsinc division of AOL. One of the site’s writers, Brian White, writes almost half of the 400 posts per month. His work is consistent and well-researched. His output is amazing. Most of the posts at BloggingStocks cover eight companies: Apple, GE, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, eBay, Google, Time Warner, and Yahoo!. The site has about 15 regular contributors, so the coverage of each of the companies is very complete and well-edited. (24/7 Wall St. contributes articles on Time Warner under contract with Bloggingstocks.) Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 27,484.

Hilary On Stocks (www.journals.aol.com/hilaryonstocks/hilaryonstocks). Hilary Kramer writes about stocks for AOL Finance. Most of her posts cover individual public companies. The analysis reads like a string of high-end research reports. Companies cover a range of small caps to Fortune 500 companies. Alexa Three Month Traffic Rank: based on AOL which hosts this blog, but not the blog itself: 36)

Value Discipline (http://www.valuediscipline.blogspot.com/) The author is a former portfolio manager who ran institutional money. The majority of the posts, about one a day, cover companies and mutual funds. Recent posts on Tesco and corporate governance were particularly good. (24/7 Wall St. sometimes runs posts from Value Discipline.) Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 580,006.

Random Roger’s Big Picture (http://www.randomroger.blogspot.com/) Random Roger writes about anything and everything in the financial world, and most of it he does very well. Recent posts cover the ING Russia Fund, the number of months the market has been down each year since 1982, and the market’s 200 day moving average. The guy has interests, and expertise, that are that broad. Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 241,389.
Equity Investment Ideas (http://www.equityinvestmentideas.blogspot.com/) This site is written by Yaser Anwar. He writes a great deal about energy and metals, but also covers individual stocks. Anwar does a lot of technical analysis, well illustrated by charts. Some posts rely too much on text from other media, but, in general, the content is intelligent and unique. (24/7 Wall St. sometimes runs posts from Equity Investment Ideas.) Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 1,537,147.

Absolutely No DooDahs (http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/) The posts at this site cover almost everything in the equity investing world. Recent articles include the hurdles for the Chinese car companies that want to sell cars in the US and a long, in-depth piece on WD-40. Almost every article has a thoughtful angle. Alexa Three Month Traffic Ranking: 796,797.

Street Insider.com 13D Tracker (http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/) SEC filings are a goldmine of information for investors. Very few people have the time or background to work through all of the documents filed by public companies to figure out those that are important. Virtually everyday this site posts data on which investors are increasing or decreasing holdings in public companies. This kind of content is hard to find, especially when someone smart has already evaluated it. Alexa Three Month Traffic Rank: Not Ranked.

The Average Joe Investor (www.theaveragejoeinvestor.blogspot.com) Joe does not write much anymore, but we are going to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he takes up the pen more often. Some of the posts here analyzing companies are as good as any on the web. Joe shares this ability with Geoff Gannon. Recent posts on Amphenol and “Dealing With A Down Market” are outstanding. Alexa Three Month Traffic Rank: 2,091,290.

Apple Inc (AAPL): Examining the Prospects of a Low-Cost iPhone

Apple Inc (nasd:AAPL) For some time, many have speculated about an arrival of a $99 iPhone. Some analysts expect a low-cost model with scaled back features, such as 2.5G instead of 3G, no GPS, and possibly a smaller form factor. While I believe a lower iPhone price point is possible, I don’t expect Apple to go backwards by removing features that reduce device functionality to achieve a lower-cost offering. The price of the handset is much less significant than the lifetime cost of the required $30/month data plan. Therefore, crippling device functionality to lower handset price makes no sense when the primary cost component is the data plan.

I believe if Apple were to pursue reducing the price of the iPhone to the consumer, it should first explore offering alternative pricing that doesn’t necessarily lower selling price and margins. Offering cheaper data plans that coincide with less usage would allow consumers to be able to pay according to usage, rather than being required to pay for unlimited when their usage is actually quite limited. Carriers would apply less subsidy and charge more for the handset, yet consumers would still save over the life of the contract. Carriers would still benefit from increased demand even though ARPU may not be quite as high. Carriers could capture the iPod touch demand that arrises from those who wish to avoid the required data plan.

Low-Cost Model With Less Features- Unlikely:
While unit demand increased dramatically from previous price reductions, ($599 - $399, $399 - $199), I don’t expect unit demand to be nearly as responsive to a $100 price reduction, from $199 to $99. At this price level, demand elasticity begins to evaporate, as consumers are less responsive to further price cuts. At $199, the iPhone is competitively priced, opposed to when it was priced out of the market at $599. The bulk of the pick-up in demand from cutting handset price has already been realized.

Reducing hardware cost is another challenge. Eliminating or scaling back certain features through cheaper or fewer components won’t significantly impact build costs. The obvious modifications that many have cited are removing GPS, 3G baseband, and installing less flash memory for media storage. These actions would likely only lower component cost by $15-$20. Additional cost reductions could be brought about with a smaller form factor, however the savings wouldn’t be great enough to offset the burdens it would create on the software development side.

Perhaps the most crucial aspect is it’s the cost of the service plan, not handset, that is the most costly. The iPhone requires signing a 2-year contract for the $30/month smartphone data plan. Over the life of the agreement, this amounts to $720. For those who currently have a $15/month data plan for a non-smartphone device, the incremental difference over 24 months is $360. However, AT&T offers a bundled unlimited text & data plan for non-smartphone devices for $30/month, instead of $35/month ($15 data + $20 text), which raises the monthly price difference to $20, or $480 over 2 year contract for those affected customers. AT&T subscribers who use a smartphone other than the iPhone wouldn’t pay more since the price of the data plan is the same as the iPhone.



Lowering the iPhone handset price by $100 accomplishes little in the sense of affordability due to the $720 24-month cost of the required data plan. I frequently track online discussion forums (such as AT&T iPhone support) as an informal survey tool. The amount of discussion regarding the iPhone handset price pales in comparison to the required data plan. People tend not to have any problem with the $199 price, but are very vocal about the recurring $30/month for the data plan. In fact, there have been a couple individuals who weren’t adverse to pay $399 since they weren’t eligible for an upgrade, but were inquiring if there were a way to circumvent the data plan requirement. There is little evidence suggesting a $100 price drop will have a profound impact due to the large number of consumers who find the data plan requirement inhibitory.

Reducing the data plan fee, or eliminating the requirement altogether, would have the most substantial impact on demand. The problem with this alternative is that Apple receives a ~$400 subsidy based the higher ARPU generated by the data plan. Therefore, if the iPhone ARPU were to decrease from reducing the price of the data plan, then the iPhone subsidy would decrease as well.

Assuming that hardware costs can be reduced by $50, and the subsidy falls to $200 from $400, gross margin would decline to 33% from 58%. In order for earnings to increase, unit volume would have to rise by a factor of 3.5x.

Assuming a more generous subsidy of $250, perhaps with required $10/month plan, gross margin would only fall to $43%, but volume would have to increase more than 2.3x.

A scenario where a $20/month data plan produces a $300 subsidy, gross margin would only drop 800 bps to 50%, and volume would only have to rise 75% to be cash flow neutral. However, consumers still face an incremental $480 increase from the data plan, which will limit the impact on demand.

Even if the economics of reducing hardware and service costs were to make sense, there are other issues. Crippling device functionality takes away from the user experience, which is the primary focus of Apple products. Substituting 2.5G would significantly worsen web browsing and video streaming.

The tests I have been conducting show iPhone 3G data speeds are currently 7-8x faster than 2.5G. In the months following the 3G iPhone release, speeds were only 2-3x faster than EDGE. Obviously, AT&T has made substantial progress in improving its network, which significantly enhances the iPhone user experience. With many competing devices beginning to offer 3G, a slower iPhone might damage consumer perception and lessen its appeal. The iPhone is designed for heavy internet usage, thus a much slower connection would dramatically lessen the iPhone experience. This move would probably only save $5-$10 in hardware costs.

Removing GPS would only save ~$5 in component costs as iSuppli lists the price of the GPS radio at $3.60, and the impact on user experience would be considerable. Many apps are designed around the user’s current location, which requires GPS to obtain an accurate position. The integration of location services with other iPhone features is a major factor that differentiates the iPhone from other devices. Therefore, without any real cost benefit, offering a model without GPS makes no sense.

Altering the form-factor is another alternative for reducing costs. A smaller device could reduce hardware costs to a degree, yet it would require a relatively large size reduction to meaningfully affect hardware cost. This would pose several challenges. Apps are developed for a specific display size, thus duplicate versions may be required to accommodate different displays. The challenge may be further exacerbated due to input commands being handled by the multi-touch display. Therefore, modification may be needed not just for output, but input as well. In addition, a smaller viewing area would reduce the user experience, and a smaller area for input commands may cause navigation to suffer. To achieve meaningful savings, the handset size would have to be reduced to a point at which the user experience would highly suffer.

I don’t believe there should be any change to the iPhone hardware since potential cost savings are rather insignificant. The only exception would be offering 2.5G models in markets where 3G is unavailable as long as it were accompanied by a cheaper data plan. This might help spur demand in non-3G markets where consumers must pay $30 for 3G service and aren’t even able to take advantage of the faster speed.

Possible Alternatives:
The best course of action would be to offer multiple data plan choices, and adjust the handset price accordingly by applying less subsidy. The consumer would have to pay more on the front-end, yet would save money over the 24 month agreement. A cheaper data plan results in less handset subsidy which would be absorbed by the consumer. Thus, it wouldn’t affect the economics of the iPhone with respect to Apple, yet it would provide flexibility for consumers. If a particular individual plans to use very little data, then he/she could select a cheaper plan with less data usage included. They would pay more for the handset, but would still save money over 2 years from the cheaper monthly cost of the data plan. The savings will come at the expense of AT&T, yet it’s not a real expense, rather the opportunity cost of not receiving $30/month for the unlimited data plan. However, this could be offset (or overcome) with sufficient increase in demand.

A scenario with a $10/month data plan would raise the handset price to $349, a $150 increase, but reduce lifetime service fees by $480. Including the price increase of the device, net savings over 24 months is $330. A second scenario with a $20/month plan for heavier data usage would increase the iPhone price $100, to $299, but lower service fees $240 over 2 years, resulting in net decrease of $140. If an individual pays the extra $100 for the cheaper $20/month plan, and later decides he/she needs the unlimited data plan, the carrier could offer a $25/month instead of $30/month since $100 was collected on the front-end. If one wanted to switch to a smaller data plan, then the handset discount could be recovered from lowering the monthly fee by less than the full amount.

There is one scenario of a low-cost model that I do think is a possibility. Bernstein Research’s Toni Sacconaghi has broached the idea of an “iPod phone” which makes a lot of sense. The premise is that music is moving onto many basic mobile phones which may pose a threat to iPod sales. The concept of a converged device means that users won’t prefer to carry both a phone and an iPod. For those who don’t want an advanced phone with internet capability, such as the iPhone, but want a media player combined with a basic mobile handset, an “iPod phone” would be a suitable match. Essentially, a iPod classic or nano could be married with a basic mobile device that wouldn’t require a data plan. Possibly, it may offer some “widgets” such as stocks and weather, but not email or internet browsing. The sole purpose would to counter iPod defection from those using their mobile phones more and more as a music player. I don’t foresee such a device anytime soon, however it remains a viable possibility down the road.

I do believe a $99 iPhone is inevitable. However, it wouldn’t be a “low cost” model, rather Apple could offer the current iPhone model for $99 in light of an introduction of new advanced models. I expect new iPhone models to arrive this summer, which will have faster processors, and advanced graphics chips that will allow multiple apps to run simultaneously and video capability. There has been an un substantiated rumor that AT&T might buy back iPhones since current 3G owners would be ineligible for a subsidy on a new iPhone model if one were to come this summer. These phones could be sold for $99 or less. AT&T has been running deals for $99 on refurbished iPhones.

Apple’s iPhone Vision:
Management has stated it doesn’t intend making an iPhone for everybody. Apple says it isn’t interested in selling the most units, but rather committed to being the leader in the market segment it prefers to serve. Comments from Apple contradict many pundits and analysts that claim the firm is limiting the iPhone’s potential by addressing such a small portion of the overall mobile handset market. However, Apple is a company that demonstrates patience. Steve Jobs once said rather than crossing a river to get to someplace else, Apple waits for the other side of the river to come to it. The smartphone market is growing considerably, thus there isn’t much reason to stoop down into the basic handset market that will be contracting.

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